Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall 2026 Forecast Has Big News For Upstate New York

You can start eyeing your favorite sweater. The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its fall 2026 forecast, and if you've been waiting all summer for a break from the heat, this year's outlook has some good news for Upstate New York.

Fall is my favorite season, the one I look forward to all year. There's nothing like watching the hills around here turn into a kaleidoscope of color, catching the smell of someone's wood stove drifting through the neighborhood, and finally justifying a warm mug of apple cider on the porch. It's the season that makes you want to dig out the cozy sweaters and just sit outside a while longer than you should.

Upstate New York Fall Forecast: What The Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts

According to the almanac, the Northeast region, which covers most of Upstate New York, should expect a cooler and wetter fall than average this year. That means below-normal temperatures paired with more rainfall than you'd typically see across September and October.

It's a shift from the pattern the almanac's fall outlook is calling for in much of the rest of the country. The nation's interior is on track to run warmer than average this fall, while the East Coast and Pacific Coast trend cooler, giving Upstate New York a front row seat to that cooler coastal pattern.

If you're closer to the Pennsylvania border, the almanac's neighboring Appalachians region, which stretches into western New York, is calling for a slightly different mix: below-average temperatures in September paired with drier conditions rather than wetter ones. Either way, you can expect this fall to feel like an actual fall instead of an extension of summer.

Upstate New York Foliage: When Peak Color Will Arrive This Fall

For those of us who plan entire weekends around leaf peeping, the almanac's foliage outlook says peak color typically shows up first in the northern parts of the state and at higher elevations in late September, then works its way south through October and into early November. Cooler, wetter conditions like the ones forecast this year tend to bring out those deep reds and oranges you look forward to all summer, so it could be a good year to plan that drive through the hills.

Weather can always shift the timing, so keep an eye on local conditions as we get closer to the season. But if this forecast holds, you may want to keep your camera charged a little earlier than usual.

How The Old Farmer's Almanac Makes Its Fall Weather Predictions

The Old Farmer's Almanac has been forecasting weather since 1792, making it the oldest continuously published periodical in North America. It builds its long-range outlooks by comparing solar activity, historical climate patterns, and current meteorological data against a 30-year statistical average. That comparison period currently runs from 1991 through 2020, and the almanac updates it every decade.

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Meteorologists will tell you that any forecast made months in advance carries real uncertainty, especially the closer you get to your specific town. You can check the almanac's full regional breakdown here. But there's something about that first cool morning, the first whiff of wood smoke, and the first sweater you pull out of the closet that makes checking the almanac every August feel like part of the season itself.